No.86, Sunday, 1st. March 2026
The situation in the Middle East is already serious, and the Supreme Leader of Iran is dead. Apart from all the enormously expensive weapons fired by all involved there is the disruption to millions of lives, destruction of buildings – and death. It is all very sad and, in my view, unnecessary. Given my background in geography and energy I have been reflecting this morning on geopolitics and how we are likely to be affected by these events.
From our perspective in Britain we must hope that Russia will be able to go a long way to fill the gap in lost oil supplies in the coming weeks and months. That may sound odd to some but it demonstrates the complexities of geopolitics. The Iranian government has not yet ‘closed’ the Straits of Hormuz, which would affect them as much as it would us and others around the world. If they do, then a high proportion of oil and gas exports – mainly for markets in Asia – will be disrupted. The price of oil on world markets will rise, affecting everyone. Russia has good relations with a number of Asian nations and could step in to supply them, filling at least some of the gap in supply. Oil price rises would be lower than they otherwise might be. The impact on us is reduced.
But, and there is always a ‘but’, enabling Russia to help us in this perverse roundabout way also provides them with desperately needed additional income, which they could use to help them fight the war in the Ukraine. As I said, such are the complexities of geopolitics. We need leaders who understand these complexities, or at the very least who have experts they trust and listen to in order to make better decisions. Sadly, it would appear that some countries simply do not have such leaders.
Colin Anderson 